Let's continue analysing ATP Montreal as Roger Federer will face David Ferrer for his second match in Rogers Cup. It's clear that Roger Federer is the big favourite to win this match and I'm not expecting any upset in this match.
If you follow me, you surely know that I was expecting Ferrer to lose early in this tournament against Edmund or Sock. The spanish was incredible in those matches (and a little bit lucky) as he won in 3 sets in both cases. Those matches were very similiar...In the first game of the 3rd set, Edmund and Sock had both a chance to break Ferrer but both failed it. After failing that break points chance, both went out of the match and Ferrer had easy life. As I said multiple of times, Ferrer is a clay court player. He had some good results on this surface in the past but now he is not in a good period of his carreer. First two matches was very tough battles and he will be tired for this match. He never won against Federer in his whole carreer and I'm not expecting him to do that today. Also, considering how Federer is playing, I don't see the spanish winning a set or even giving problems to Federer (forcing a tiebreak I mean). I think that nobody (or almost) considered Ferrer able to win both of his first two matches and it's time to stop the magic. He lost in 3 sets last two matches against Federer on hardcourts but that was 3 years ago and a lot of things have changed.
Roger Federer, on the other hand, is absolutely unstoppable right now. Maybe, the only player able to stop him is Rafael Nadal so everyone is expecting a big Fedal in the final. Federer played yesterday is first match on hardcourt after the big win in Wimbledon and he was perfect against Polansky (a very poor player) conceding only 3 games. He is 32-2 this season and his only two losses came agains Haas and Donskoy (20-1) on hardcourts. This season, on this surface, he has already won Australian Open, Miami and Indian Wells. And no, I'm not joking. His serve is absolutely unreal conceding very few break points to his opponents while, on the other hand, is responding game is outstanding.
Line is decent at 19,5 and I will bet on under. Something like 6-3/6-4 is very possible or there are even chances for an easier win for Roger.
* - Odds correct at time of publication, and are subject to change.
- PickUnder 19.5
- Odds-105 Betfair
- Match result6-4 4-6 2-6 (-8.00)
Last 10 D. Ferrer
|03.07.18||D. Ferrer - K. Khachanov||1-3||Wimbl|
|27.06.18||D. Ferrer - M. Kukushkin||0-2||Eastb|
|25.06.18||D. Ferrer - M. Berrettini||2-0||Eastb|
|28.05.18||J. Munar - D. Ferrer||3-2||Frenc|
|22.05.18||P. Gojowczyk - D. Ferrer||2-0||Genev|
|13.05.18||D. Ferrer - J. Sock||0-2||Rome|
|08.04.18||D. Ferrer - P. Kohlschreiber||3-2||Davis|
|06.04.18||D. Ferrer - A. Zverev||0-3||Davis|
|26.03.18||A. Zverev - D. Ferrer||2-1||Miami|
|24.03.18||E. Donskoy - D. Ferrer||0-2||Miami|
Last 10 R. Federer
|11.07.18||R. Federer - K. Anderson||2-3||Wimbl|
|09.07.18||R. Federer - A. Mannarino||3-0||Wimbl|
|06.07.18||R. Federer - J-L. Struff||3-0||Wimbl|
|04.07.18||R. Federer - L. Lacko||3-0||Wimbl|
|02.07.18||R. Federer - D. Lajovic||3-0||Wimbl|
|24.06.18||R. Federer - B. Coric||1-2||Halle|
|23.06.18||R. Federer - D. Kudla||2-0||Halle|
|22.06.18||R. Federer - M. Ebden||2-0||Halle|
|21.06.18||R. Federer - B. Paire||2-1||Halle|
|19.06.18||R. Federer - A. Bedene||2-0||Halle|