Another UEFA Champions League match scheduled for today as Hapoel Beer Sheva will host Maribor. I think that this will be a very balanced match. Despite being clear favourite to win this match, I'm not expecting total domination by the home side. They should have about 48-53% of ball possession as Maribor is not a defensive minded team. Also, the home side should be very carefull to not concede and they will not go all in. Hapoel Beer Sheva is not a team that pushes hard from the beginning of the match and we will not see a lot of chances to score.
Hapoel Beer Sheva are not a team that wins a lot of corners per game. They have played 4 european matches: they collected 5 corners at home against Honved and 5 corners away from home (they were favourite in both matches). Also, they collected only 4 corners at home against Ludogorets and 6 away from home against them. They are not a team that win a lot of corners as this is not in their DNA.
Maribor, on the other hand, is a team that collects even less amount of corners. In their 4 european matches, they collected only 2 corners against Zrinjski away from home and only 4 at home. After these matches, they were clearly favourite against Hafnarfjordur and they collected 6 corner at home and 4 away from home. In most of these games there were less than 10 corners per game. Maribor won even less corners than Hapoel Beer Sheva and they will not have a lot of chances to shoot on target.
I think that this will be a close game with both teams trying to not concede. I'm not expecting an high tempo match and we will not see a lot of shots on target. I don't expect more than 9 corners in this match. Odds for this line are very good and I think that there is value.
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* - Odds correct at time of publication, and are subject to change.