I will continue today betting on corners as I think that this is a very profitable market. This is matchday dedicated to Europa League so let's analyse some matches. I will start analysing Hafnafjordur-Braga where I will bet on under 10,5 corners. I think that this line is a joke and this is a big gift in my eyes. I think that we will not see more than 10 corners in this match as both teams usually don't play a lot with corners.
Hafnafjordur will play very defensive minded this match. They will have about 40-45% of ball possession as they will try to not concede against a clearly better team. They have played 4 european matches this season (in Champions League qualifier) and they have not collected a lot of corners. They collected 10 corners against Vikingur at home and 5 in the 2nd leg against them. Their 2nd playoff round was against Maribor: they collected 1 corner away from home and 0 corner at home against them. As you can see, they have collected big amount of corners only against Vikingur at home as they were much more better and they pushed hard (also they conceded a goal at home). I don't think that they will collect big amount of corners today...they will face a better team and they will try (before everything) to keep a clean sheet.
Braga, on the other hand, played two european matches against AIK. They collected only two corners playing away from home and 7 corners in the 2nd leg at home (only 5 of these were on regular time as they went to over time. The match was still under 10,5 corners). Braga is the better team. Bookmakers think that they are favourite and I agree with them...football played in Portugal is much more different that the one played in Iceland. Braga will control the game but not winning a lot of corners.
It's clear that Braga will have possession and will have the best chances to score. Both teams usually don't collect a lot of corners and considering that Hafnarfjordur will try mostly to defend, I think that this game will go easily under 10,5 corners. Also Braga to win in corners (1x2) seems to be a good choice but I prefere to bet on under 10,5 corners. Odds for this line should be around 1,65 considering how these two teams are playing. I see big value.
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* - Odds correct at time of publication, and are subject to change.