I have another tip for chinese Super League and I will trust on the home team here with good value. Tianjin Quanjian are the better team and with the home advantage should win this one.
Tianjin Quanjian are 4th in the league...they have 36 points after 20 matches played but they have the same points of Guangzhou R&F (R&F played one match more). They are playing just amazing as they are unbeaten in the last 8 matches played. Also, they won 7 of the last 10 matches played. At home, they are one of the best teams in the league as they lost only once, winning 6 times and drawing two. They have scored 18 goals conceding 10. Their defense is nothing special (still much more better than most of the top teams in China) but their offense is just amazing.
Beijing Guoan, on the other hand, is a middle table team right now. Even if they are playing good (unbeaten in the last 5 matches), they have 32 points and everyone was expecting much more from them. When playing away from home, they are an "all-in" team as they won 4 matches out of 10 played losing 5 times. Their offense was good (14 goals scored) but their defense too weak (16 goals conceded). It's true that they are in a good shape but I'm not afraid about this...away from home, the story is very different especially with one of strongest teams when playing in front of their fans.
Both teams are playing good and both will play for 3 points. As I said before, the home advantage will the key for this match. Tianjin Quanjian can't fail this one after Guangzhou R&F wins and these are 3 very important points for them. Also, they have already showed that they are better than Beijing Guoan at the start of the season as they draw 1-1 playing away from home against them. Beijing Guoan was very lucky to take a draw from that match as they have scored with only 10 minutes remaining. Odds for the home win should be around 1,75 so I see an amazing value. I will go with flat stake in this case.
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* - Odds correct at time of publication, and are subject to change.